Carlsbad, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

329
FXUS64 KMAF 220812
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
212 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 206 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

- Patchy fog possible Sunday morning for eastern Permian Basin

- Cold fronts expected Tuesday and Thursday, with Thursday`s
  front still expected to be stronger and bringing a 20% of rain
  to far eastern regions of the Permian Basin

- Westerly downsloping winds and a warming trend from Friday into
  the end of next weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 206 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Mostly clear skies and light winds are being observed across the
area this morning. Hi-res models are indicating that patchy fog
may form later this morning across the Permian Basin though no
signs of such have been seen yet. Will leave it out of the
forecast for now and continue to monitor, amending the forecast
later if needed. Otherwise a zonal upper level pattern keeps
temperatures above normal today into tomorrow with highs in the
60s and 70s and lows in the upper 30s and 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 206 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Deterministic and ensemble models continue to depict a zonal
pattern in mid to upper tropospheric flow into next weekend.
Troughing in flow at times will allow cold fronts to move south
through the area and decrease temperatures. The first such front
will be Monday night into Tuesday. Monday night, lows near 10
degrees above average SE NM plains and northeast of Pecos River
and closer to 15 degrees above average south southwest of Pecos
River are expected as a cold front moves in from the north and
shifts winds from southerly to northerly. Lows in the 40s, mid to
upper 30s basins of Culberson County and Upper Trans Pecos into SE
NM plains and northwest Permian Basin are forecast. Highs 7 to 9
degrees above average and closer to 15 degrees above average over
southernmost regions are forecast Tuesday, with 60s north of Rio
Grande basins and Terrell County, and 70s and above in Rio Grande
basins and Terrell County, including lower 80s in the Big Bend.
Tuesday night, northerly winds behind the cold front veer back to
southerly, with lows remaining similar to Monday night. Weak
ridging aloft and at the surface Christmas Day allows highs to
rebound closer to 12 to 14 degrees above average with mid to upper
60s most of SE NM plains, northern Permian Basin, lower 60s
Guadalupes into Davis Mountains, and 70s and above elsewhere, with
mid to upper 80s in the Big Bend. Wednesday night, lows again
fall into the mid to upper 30s in usual cooler spots as the next
cold front moves in.

This cold front remains on track to be stronger than Tuesday`s
and followed by renewed warm and dry weather into next weekend.
Thursday, northwesterly winds maintaining CAA keep highs 5 to 7
degrees above average most regions, with mid to upper 50s most of
Lea County and Guadalupes into Davis Mountains, mid to upper 60s
north of Rio Grande basins and Terrell County, and 70s in Rio
Grande basins into Terrell County, where highs remain closer to 10
to 15 degrees above average. Westward extent of nonzero PoPs has
come down a bit in more recent NBM runs, but PoPs are still
expected to be near 20% far eastern regions of Permian Basin, with
no rain accumulation forecast. Northwesterly winds shift to more
westerly and downsloping by Thursday night, but with lows not much
different from Wednesday night. Westerly downsloping winds
continue Friday into the end of next weekend, with a warming trend
in both highs and lows from Friday into next Sunday, with 70s for
highs and 40s for lows returning to most of central and northern
parts of the CWA for Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

All TAF sites are VFR this forecast but models continue to show a
chance for patchy fog developing near 12Z. Will continue to
monitor for possible fog in the HOB/MAF/INK TAFs. Light winds will
continue.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               65  49  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 70  36  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   67  47  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            76  46  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           63  44  62  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    67  36  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    70  39  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     67  45  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   67  44  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     71  38  72  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...10