Carlsbad, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

408
FXUS64 KMAF 311038
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
538 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 537 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

- A low (10-20%) chance of showers/thunderstorms are possible
  Thursday and Friday, mainly across southeast New Mexico and the
  northern Permian Basin before becoming confined to the Davis
  Mountains Saturday.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures into the upper 90s to
  lower 100s continue into the first half of this weekend.

- Heat will expand in coverage Sunday and Monday, with many areas
  reaching above 100 degrees each day as an upper-level ridge
  builds over the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

WV imagery this morning shows an upper ridge spanning the southern
CONUS, and amplified up into Alberta.  At the surface, mesoanalysis
shows a weak front just north of the area.  This is forecast to make
it just inside our northern border later this morning, and is
forecast to stall in the central Permian Basin during the day.  This
will result in minimal chances of convection north of the boundary.
Satellite PWAT imagery shows a very dry airmass over most of West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, with a PWAT at KMAF of 0.69" at 00Z
Thursday, which is about the 5th percentile for this time of year.
So any convection that does develop will yield little in the way of
rainfall.  Thicknesses/temperatures will come down just a skosh from
yesterday, w/highs this afternoon averaging near to a couple of
degrees above normal.

Tonight, minimal chances of convection will continue north of the
boundary.  Although the absence of a LLJ will promote radiational
cooling, abundant cloud cover will negate this, and overnight lows
look to average ~ 3-5 F above normal.

Friday, thicknesses come down a little more, shaving a degree or so
off today`s highs and making Friday perhaps the coolest day this
forecast.  The ridge is forecast to center over northwest Sonora,
with a shortwave rotating down the east side of the ridge during the
afternoon, resulting in a slight chance of convection over the
northern Permian Basin/Western Low Rolling Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

The warming and drying trend is expected to continue during the long
term period as upper-level ridging begins to take hold of the
region. The upper-level ridge axis will be centered to our west over
the Arizona/New Mexico/northern Mexico boarder Friday night. A few
embedded shortwave impulses on the eastern periphery of the ridge
bring low (10-20%) chances of rain Friday night across portions of
southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin. Chances of rain
taper off after midnight as the upper-level ridge continues to build
over our region. However, southeasterly upslope flow and sufficient
daytime heating keep low (10-20%) chances of rain in and around the
Davis Mountains Saturday afternoon.

The heating trend really begins Saturday as the upper-level ridge
axis becomes centered over west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Highs Saturday are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s for most,
with the exception of mid 80s to low 90s in higher terrain.
Locations in the Trans Pecos and along the Rio Grande can expect to
see highs in the triple digits. The triple digit heat expands in
coverage Sunday afternoon as thicknesses increase with the ridge.
Afternoon highs Sunday are forecast to range between 100 and 105
degrees across the Trans Pecos, Lower Trans Pecos, Permian Basin,
southeast New Mexico, and places near/along the Rio Grande. Some
spots in/near the Big Bend could see even hotter temperatures
between 105 and 110 degrees. Monday looks to be the hottest day of
the period as afternoon highs are expected to rise another 1-3
degrees over much of the same areas. Given the widespread triple
digit heat that is expected, heat products will likely need to be
issued Monday (and perhaps Sunday) that covers much of the CWA.

Temperatures begin to come down some and triple digit heat decreases
in coverage Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper-level ridge axis
broadens. However, triple digit heat is expected to remain in place
for many through the middle of next week. Overnight lows in the low
to mid 70s are expected over much of the area each night.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light/variable flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               99  73  96  72 /   0  10  10  10
Carlsbad                 94  71  93  71 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                   99  74  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            98  72  98  73 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           87  68  87  69 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                    93  68  93  69 /  10  10  20  10
Marfa                    91  63  89  64 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     97  73  96  73 /   0  10  10  10
Odessa                   96  73  95  73 /   0  10  10  10
Wink                     98  71  96  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...