Carlsbad, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

796
FXUS64 KMAF 222301
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
501 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 501 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

- Cool and dry conditions will continue through Monday.

- Temperatures warm back to well above normal Tuesday through
  Saturday. Record warmth and elevated fire weather conditions
  will be possible on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 116 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Below normal temperatures hold on for tonight as lows dip into the
upper 20s to low 30s for much of the region. Big Bend remains
relatively warmer in the 30s to around 40F. Highs rebound into the
60s for most Monday afternoon as upper level ridging moves over the
Southwest US. Lows heading into Tuesday morning end up a few degrees
warmer in the 30s as part of a warming trend. The nearby ridging and
a very dry airmass spell rain chances near zero for the short term
forecast.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 116 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

An upper-level ridge axis positioned across the west coast brings
northwest flow aloft to the region, yielding well above normal
temperatures next week. Tuesday, afternoon highs are expected to
range from the upper 70s to low 80s. Near record highs are expected
on Wednesday due strong, westerly downslope flow. This yields
afternoon highs in the mid-to-upper 80s for most, with 90s along the
Rio Grande and 70s in the higher terrain. For reference, the
previous record high of 86F at Midland International Air and Space
Port (MAF) was set back in 2009. Breezy conditions are currently
expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, thanks to surface lee troughing
situated across eastern New Mexico. The aforementioned downslope
flow concurrent with well above normal temperatures and dry
conditions bring increased fire weather concerns on Wednesday.
Ensemble guidance depicts a cold front moving through the region
Thursday, bringing afternoon highs down into the 70s for most.
However, this "cool-down" may be short-lived as cluster analysis
shows the upper-level ridge axis shifting east towards our area.
This may yield afternoon highs in the 80s again on Friday and
Saturday. No rain is expected in the extended forecast.

-Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions and modest southeast winds continue the next 24
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               31  62  38  79 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 30  63  36  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   38  64  38  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            36  65  42  83 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           33  59  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    29  61  33  80 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    26  62  30  75 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     33  62  38  79 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   33  62  38  79 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     33  63  35  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...10